关于柯西中值定理“中值ξ”的渐近性     

徐辉 《华东地质学院学报》1994,17(3):294-296

  相似文献   

滇西实验场两次中强地震前后尾波衰减的区域特征分析   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

秦嘉政  刘祖荫 《中国地震》1995,11(3):212-221

本文在地方震尾波散理论模式的基础上，研究了１９９２年１２月发生在滇西地震预报实验场永胜期纳地区的两次Ｍｓ５．４，５．１地震前后的序列地震尾波振幅衰减率β和尾波Ｑ＾－１值随时间和空间变化的衰减特征。结果表明，尾波衰减率在空间分布上表现出明显的小区域范围的非均匀性，在主震震中附近的近场区内，主震期间的β值是０．００７６ｓ＾－１，相应的Ｑｃ＾－１值是０．００５６；余震期间的β值是０．０２０９ｓ＾－１，相  相似文献   

临汾地震安全性评价的极值理论方法     

彭美煊 《高原地震》1995,(1)

本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式，根据最大熵原理建立了未来Ｔ年烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的概率和烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用１０２２─１９９３年的地震资料，计算了临汾（３６．１０°Ｎ，１１１．５０°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度，绘制了未来１００年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线（地震危险性曲线）。结果表明，计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。  相似文献   

滇东重点监视区Q值随时间变化的研究     

陈学庭 《地震研究》1995,18(1):29-40

本文根据Ａｋｉ的尾波散射理论，在前几年圈定的滇东重点监视区范围内量取了１１个台近站２５００个地震尾波资料，计算了各台在研究的大区域及６个小区域内的随时间变化的Ｑ值，并分析了其随时间变化的特征，得出滇东重点监视区在未来３至５年内不会有７级以上大震发生的危险性。  相似文献   

B模式产品业务应用价值的总结分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

范淦清  董孝银  朱双 《气象》1995,21(4):43-45

在总结江苏省台近１０年ＭＯＳ预报业务效果的基础上，提示了Ｂ模式产品在省级台天气预报中的应用价值，包括产品对江苏的释用水平．释用经验和如何取得最大业务效益的途径。  相似文献   

贵州省矿业开发引起的环境问题及其成因探讨   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

张祥华  刘勤 《地质灾害与环境保护》2001,12(4):21-24,29

矿业开发给贵州省造成严重的生态环境问题,主要包括环境污染,矿业荒漠化和环境地质灾害。虽然贵州省矿产开发的历史比较悠久,但解放前的生态破坏和矿业污染仅局限在个别地区,解放后出现的三次大规模资源环境破坏,给贵州省矿业可持续发展带来严重影响,特别是改革开放以来矿山资源的无序开发对环境的危害最重。导致贵州省矿业环境问题的主要因素包括：矿产资源价值的严重扭曲,乡镇企业的超常规发展,部分政府官员的权力寻租,以及资源导向型的脱贫模式等。  相似文献   

关中地区地磁比值Rq的变化与地震关系的分析     

毛娟  邢西淳  邵辉成  刘春  刘学升 《高原地震》2005,17(4):35-42

应用小波分析空间差分法分析了泾阳台、乾陵台、周至台和郑州台的Z分量的地磁磁静日Rg值的变化规律，结果显示，各台的磁静日Rg值有较一致的年变规律。分析泾阳台与其它各台的磁静日R。差值分析和小波变换，发现1998年1月5日泾阳4．8级地震前4个月内存在较明显的异常变化。可能反映了泾阳地震的震磁效应。对远离泾阳台、乾陵台的青海昆仑山口西8．1级地震，震前也有明显异常变化。  相似文献   

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Mei ZHAO  Andrew J. PITMAN 《大气科学进展》2005,22(1):58-68

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.  相似文献   

望儿山金矿生产勘探超前期限与范围合理性的选择和应用     

汤磊  罗先熔 《矿产与地质》2005,19(4):426-428

望儿山金矿浅部生产已接近尾声,其生产正向深部转移,但望儿山金矿深部地质条件十分复杂,为使其生产能更好的延续下去,通过对生产勘探的超前期限与范围合理性的研究和探讨,在总结前人经验的基础上,根据望儿山金矿实际,采用价值法的分析,得出其现有生产勘探合理的超前期限与范围.  相似文献   

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):37-46

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.  相似文献